Wind Wakeup ComboTier 1
at EVO Regional(DTR)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concealed Marksman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Squallbind Pounce | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Steady Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |